Indian Summer on the Way?

Now that most of Northeast Ohio has had a killing frost (Hopkins 32f on 10/29/13), people may be wondering when will Indian Summer arrive. First we must define Indian Summer. The US National Weather Service defines Indian Summer as a period of warm and sunny days following a sharp frost. It appears that next week the region will see several consecutive days of above normal temperatures and with a little luck, sunny skies early in the period. This is all in response to the deep cold trough that was located in the Eastern US lifting out and being replaced by a warm ridge centered over the Southeastern States.  In the short term, a warm and wet system will progress though the region by Saturday morning bringing a brief period of cooler temperatures for Saturday and Sunday.  After that, Indian Summer should arrive for all to enjoy!

On Monday, the high will begin moving east of the area allowing warming temperatures (yellows and oranges) to return to the area after a brief cool period during weekend.

The warm ridge centered in the Southeastern States will allow warmer then normal temperatures to flow north and east.

The North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations are remaining positive indicating no major cold periods for the first week of November in the Eastern USA. 

A Shot of Cold and for Some, Snow.

A deep trough is digging over the Great Lakes region of the nation allowing the coldest air of the season to arrive for locations east of the Mississippi River. Though it may seem like a shock, it is not unusual as the growing season typically ends in mid to late October for much of the Midwest. Areas from Minnesota to the central Ohio have seen their first snow flakes of the season and more areas will have an opptertunity to see snow flakes through the end of the week. No major storms are expected through the period but those areas downwind of the Great Lakes may pick up a few inches. The tough is still expect to weaken early next week and areas of the upper Ohio Valley should approach normal by mid week.

  

This may be a good time to discuss this up coming winter predictions.  Currently the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina index) is neutral and is not expected to influence this winter season. NOAA is predicting a near normal winter for temperatures and precipitation in the Ohio Valley.

 Accuweather is predicting an active weather track through the Ohio Valley which could deliver plenty of snow and or rain, depending on which side the front you lie on (here).

The Old Farmer's Almanac is predicting slightly milder than normal temperatures and a below average snowfall this winter (here).

Lastly, the the woollybears of Northeast Ohio are predicting an early cold and snowy start to winter which will moderate at the beginning of January followed by a early spring.

I tend to stay away from long range forecasts but after two consecutive warmer than normal and less snowy than normal winters in Northeast Ohio, odds point to a typical winter this season. Stay tuned and lets see if by January what type of adjustments are need for the predictions. 

First Shot of Much Cooler Weather

Say good-bye to this mid-autumn warmth as the Midwest and the Eastern  sections of the USA are getting ready for their first real shot of cooler air to mark the start of the cold weather season.  It remains to be seen how many areas will see snow flakes but areas around the Great Lakes have the best chance.  Of course when the East cools down, the warmth will reside in the Western USA from Alaska to the Pacific Northwest.  Do not pack away your fall wardrobe just yet in the East, as early indications are this pattern will moderate during the first couple weeks of November as a ridge brings warmer air northward.

The Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation begin to trend positive at the end of October points to moderating temperatures in the Eastern USA in early November