Quiet Holiday and Weekend

Yesterday's snow was definitely more hype than bite as snowfall in Northeast Ohio generally range from one (1) to four (4) inches.  Locations from Canton to Youngstown picked up around six (6) inches but even those totals were far less than the anticipated 12+ inch amounts. The weather pattern will quiet down for the rest of the holiday week, but it will remain unseasonably cold with high temps slowly rising to near 40 degrees by Sunday.  Conditions will remain dry until the next system approaches region the middle of next week.

Snowfall across the area was generally light; note the heavier snowfall from Canton to Youngstown. 

High pressure will maintain dry and unseasonably cold temperatures through the weekend.

Looking forward into next week, after approaching seasonable temperatures mid-week,a trough may swing through the area late next week, bringing a fresh blast of cold Arctic air. 

Pre-Thanksgiving Day General Snow

As expected this past weekend was a very cold one for the region, though it was far from breaking any record cold temperatures. Snowfall was generally light with the heaviest snow confined to Pennsylvania. Our attention now turns to the storm system organizing in the Gulf of Mexico. Current model trends are pointing to a storm that the moves up the East Coast, but far enough west to spread a general snowfall into eastern Ohio. The snowfall amounts will increase from west to east with the highest amounts in locations bordering Pennsylvania. Depending on the eventual track of the low pressure, snow fall amounts of 3-6 inches seem possible for most of the Cleveland metro area. Some lake effect snow showers may develop after the storm moves out on Wednesday that could add a few inches to the storm total.

Low pressure will ride up the East Coast  late Tuesday spreading snow into Northeast Ohio.

High potential for more than four (4) inches of snow in eastern Ohio, areas near the PA. border may see a foot of snow.

There will be a wide rage of snowfall amounts across Northeast Ohio.

Once this storm moves east, high pressure will generally take control allowing temperatures to slowly moderate to the around 40 degrees by Saturday. Looking ahead, the weather pattern appears to transition into one with a trough in the West and a suppressed ridge of high pressure in the Southeast. This should shift most of the arctic air to the High Plains and Mountain West regions and allow temperatures in the Eastern States to approach normal.

Here we go again

This weekend is shaping up to be very cold and for some, very snowy. The arctic front will clear the area Saturday afternoon and temperatures will plunge afterwards.  Lake effect snow bands will set up late Saturday evening with the exact location, intensity and duration to be determined. It appears that extreme Northeast Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania will have the best potential to pick up significant snowfall. Everyone will share in the cold with high temperatures remaining in the 20's region wide.  By Monday the coldest air will move east but temperatures will remain below normal with highs in the 30's.

 The arctic front will moving through the area quickly on Saturday bringing a fresh round of bitterly cold air.

 Sunday will be the coldest day of the weekend with high temperatures remaining in the 20's and windy conditions producing low windchills. 

The arctic high and coldest air will move east on Monday, but the next arctic front will already be on our doorstep. This may set the stage for a coastal storm to affect the east coast on Wednesday with rain, snow and wind . It is much too early to focus on specifics, but this warrants watching.

Tornado Outbreak

Tragically a tornado outbreak did occur on yesterday Sunday November 17. Approximately 70 tornadoes tore through Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee leaving death and destruction.  Our prayers go out to the many victims.  By the time the storms reached Northeast Ohio, they were not as intense but brought very high winds to much of the area. This weather was caused by the well advertised strong low pressure and front  which has cleared much of the eastern USA leaving much cooler air in its wake. Temperatures have fallen to the lower 40's in the area; while cool are not nearly as drastic as the early predicted low 30's. Temperatures will slowly moderate into the upper 40's by Thursday before the first in a series of cold fronts moving through the area potentially leading to much colder temperatures for early next
week.

The current number of tornadoes is approximate until field surveys confirm the actual numbers.

The next front is slated to approarch the area on Thursday and it will be the first in a series of progressively colder airmasses. 

Both the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting very cold air arriving into the region on Sunday. There is a potential for significant snowfall beginning Saturday night for Northeast Ohio. More details later this week. 

Beyond that period, the Pacific and Arctic oscillations are pointing towards a ridge in the west and a trough in the east which may facilitate a period of colder than normal temperatures for the eastern half of the nation. 

Roller Coaster Continues

As is typical for Fall and Spring, the large weather swings will continue for the foreseeable future. Currently temperatures are moderating from the most recent arctic air invasion. Temperatures this weekend will warm everyday possibly reaching the mid to upper 60's by Sunday. A quickly deepening low pressure system and strong cold front will bring rain and potentially severe thunderstorms Sunday evening. The front will move through early Monday morning sending temperatures crashing into the upper 30's by evening. Currently the trough is not looking as deep as earlier predicted so this shot of arctic air does not appear to be as extreme as what we experienced on the 12th of this month. Temperatures will moderate starting Wednesday and continue until the next front approaches late in the week.

The flow will become  more southerly on Saturday propelling temperatures into the mid and upper 50's as the western storm system approaches the Plains. 

The western system will quickly deepen as it approaches the western Great Lakes on Sunday bringing more warmth and moisture into the Ohio Valley. Strong southerly winds will bring temperatures into the 60's across much of the area.

The combination of warmth, moisture, upper level support and a strong low pressure system will provide an environment conducive for severe thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds and if enough sunshine breaks through to destabilize the atmosphere, tornadoes. Please stay alert to this potentially dangerous weather situation.

Both the ECMWF and GFS  indicate a shot of arctic air arriving on Monday possibly producing some lake-effect snow in northeast Ohio Monday night. Temperatures should not rise above 40 on Tuesday. 

Wednesday this cold air will move off to the east with temperatures moderating back into the 40's. 

COLD!!!

The well advertised arctic front has moved through leaving in its wake much colder than average temperatures. Temperatures today will not rise much above the mid 30's  which is nearly 20 degrees below a typical high for today. Now that the snow associated with frontal passage has ended, lake effect is trying to get started. The cold arctic air is generating instability over the lake but the extremely dry nature of the air is working against the production of strong lake effect snow bands. The models are indicated the band of snow will intensify later this morning, but so far that has not happened. The high pressure will work east overnight first shifting the snow east and then shutting off the lake effect. On Wednesday expect more sunshine with highs rising to near 40. This will give way to the coldest night this fall with temperatures falling into the low to middle 20's for much of the area. For the rest of the week, temperatures will continue to moderate and reach the mid to upper 50's area wide by the weekend.

A large high pressure will move in Wednesday providing sunshine and setting the stage for moderating temperatures for the remaining part of the week.

The high pressure will settle off the east coast moving the jet stream north of the USA-Canada border. This weekend temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 50's which will be five (5) to ten (10)  degrees above normal for this time of the year. Current indications are that a strong storm system will move out of the West early next week that may bring another large swing in temperatures. A post later this week will take a closer look at this potential storm system and its possible impacts on Northeast Ohio.

Shot of Arctic Air

The models have been flipping between solutions for the evolution of the weather pattern for the middle part of next week. Originally zonal flow was predicted to dominate, but on Wednesday models began indicating a shot of Arctic air moving south with a significant winter storm for the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region. Today the models are still indicating cold air moving south but there is disagreement on the strength and location of the low pressure that may form.  This all means it is much too early to get excited about any potential storm nearly five (5) days away.

Looking at the short term, a cool front has cleared the area allowing temperatures to fall back into the 40's.

A brief rebound is on tap for Saturday with temperatures in the mid to possibly upper 50's.  Another front moves through Sunday morning bringing a return to highs in the 40's with the artic front poised to move through sometime monday evening. This will bring the coldest air of the season for mid-week with tempartures in Northeast Ohio not making it out of the 30's! Brrrr!  There may be some snow as well but the amount will all depend on the location of the potential low pressure system. Stay tuned as the models hopefully converge on a solution by early next week.

As we approach next weekend, temperatures should approach normal as zonal flow takes over.

Moderation

After enduring several deep troughs over the Eastern USA during the past few weeks, the flow will transition into a more zonal flow as we approach the middle of the week. Several quick weak systems will traverse the nation as zonal flow will begin to dominate the United States, eventually blocking cold air from flowing south and allowing the eastern half of the nation to become dominated by an air mass of Pacific origin.

In the short time, temperatures will continue to warm into the 60's through Wednesday.

A weak quick moving system will move through on Thursday bringing slightly below average temperatures for Friday.

Next week the the warmth centered over the southern parts of the nation will spread north and east.

The Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations will remain positive though they may trend to zero after the middle of November.