Mississippi Tornadoes

The mild weather experienced during this past Christmas week has exited the region with the start of a new work week. The Christmas storm was responsible for several tornadoes from Louisiana to Georgia that killed five(5) people; all in Mississippi. The tornadoes were not a part of a large outbreak of tornadoes but the stronger storms hit populated areas resulting in a large amount of damage and the loss of life. Today an apparent tornado struck near Valdosta, Georgia causing damage and several injuries. The cold front that moved the through the region early Sunday was the start of much colder air moving into the area. Temperatures today were near normal but will step lower through the middle part of the week. Milder air appears to on tap for the region as we move into the weekend. 

The strongest and deadliest tornadoes on December 23, 2014 struck southern Mississippi. A total of a five (5) fatalities occurred in the EF2 and EF3 tornadoes. 

Currently seasonable cool and quiet weather has moved into the region. High temperatures today remained in the lower thirties. An apparent tornado touched down near Valdosta, Georgia ahead a cold front moving through. 

On Tuesday colder air will moved into the area keeping high temperatures in the twenties.  Snow will be possible to our south as a storm system moves off the coast.  Temperatures will fall further on Wednesday with high temperatures rising at most into the lower twenties. On Thursday high temperatures may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight temperatures on both days will be in the lower to middle teens. Quiet weather should be the general rule during the period but light snow totaling a couple inches may impact the favored Lake Erie snow belt communities east of Cleveland. 

High temperatures on Friday and Saturday should rise back into the middle and upper thirties ahead of the next storm system.  Much model discrepancy is occurring with the storm system which has an impact on its strength and track. At this time it appears the storm will remain weak with a chance of rain showers occurring on Saturday as the system approaches. 

On Sunday a cold front will move through sending the high temperatures back down into the twenties for Monday with a chance for snow showers. The seasonably cold weather appears to hold firm for the next week or two as arctic air masses moving out of Canada will mostly glance the region as they push off to the east.

A Christmas Storm but not Much Snow

Cleveland’s December snowless streak ended on Friday when an inch of snow officially fell at the airport. If less than 1.8 inches fall the rest of the month, December 2014 will be in the record books for the top ten least snowiest Decembers on record. Currently the region is finally on the backside of a high pressure system and temperatures have risen into the middle forties (40’s) under veiled sunshine.  The much advertised storm system is beginning to organize over the mid-section of the country. This system will developed in to a pair of strong low pressure systems that will track to the west of the upper Ohio Valley leaving northern Ohio on the warm and wet side of the storm. Later in the week temperatures will fall but not to drastic low levels.

Currently the storm system is organizing over the middle part of the country. A warm is organizing along the Ohio River Valley. This front will move north overnight bring a threat of rain with it.

On Tuesday early morning rain should give way to dry conditions by the afternoon. The initial low pressure system to our west will begin to weaken as it moves north. High temperatures for the area will rise into the lower fifties (50’s).

The region will remain in the warm sector on Christmas Eve as a secondary lower develops and strengthen as it moves north out of the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will become increasingly windy and wet as the low pressure tracks to the west of northern Ohio. High temperatures should again rise well into the fifties (50’s). Areas in Indiana and Michigan may have some light accumulations of snow to deal with

On Christmas the strong storm system will be located north of Lake Huron. Windy and cooler conditions will be affecting the area at this time. Rain showers should eventually change over to snow as temperatures remain in the thirties (30’s) during the day after the frontal passage.

On Friday, another system will quickly organize over the middle part of the country.  In response mild southerly winds will push high temperatures back to near fifty (50) degrees.

On Saturday the system will track northeast leaving the area in the warm sector yet again. Rain showers and eventually snow showers will affect the area much of the day. High temperatures will be in the lower forties (40’s) A cool front will pass through later during the day dropping high temperatures into the lower thirties (30’s) for Sunday. 

Major Christmas Storm??

Atypical weather for this time of the year has continued for the region. It has been more than twenty (20) days since the last measureable snowfall in Cleveland.  After the November the region experienced, that is quite a turn around. Weather the past several days has been very mild with high temperatures reaching into the lower 50’s. A cold front moved through this morning allowing more seasonable temperatures to return to the region. While the next couple of days will be seasonably cold, the arctic air remains bottled up in Siberia, for now. Temperatures will remain chilly the next couple of days before moderating to above seasonable levels early next week. The real action for the region and the Eastern USA begins on Tuesday as a strong storm system potentially takes shape over the lower Mississippi Valley.

Currently seasonably cold air is moving south into the area. A few light snow showers are falling from time to time and late Wednesday night there is chance for light snow across the snow belt in Northeastern Ohio.

Friday high pressure will remain in control of the weather over the area. A weak system will develop to the south and will begin to move through the southern tier of the country. This system has the potential to generate severe weather along the gulf coast where warm moist air moves inland.

On Saturday the system will be moving through the Southeast and attempt to spread snow into Ohio. Northern sections of the state should remain precipitation free as high pressure provides a dry northerly flow. Temperatures will remain at seasonable levels all weekend.

Monday the area will be under flow out of the south and temperatures will moderate into the lower 40’s. This is in advance of a potent storm system that will be developing in central Plain states.

On Tuesday the system to our west will deepen further as it begins to combine with energy moving south out of Canada. The area will be on the warm and increasingly windy side of the storm during the day. Rain chances will also be increasing throughout the day.

On Wednesday the system is forecast to undergo explosive development. The track of the low is uncertain at this time but it may move directly over Ohio. As it does the region will begin in the warm, windy, and wet sector of the storm. During the day the cold front will sweep through the area ushering in much colder air. Rain showers will change to snow later during the day and into the overnight. Accumulations at this time are expected to be heaviest to our northwest but enough may fall over northern Ohio for a white Christmas. Stay tuned for more details and specifics as we approach this high impact storm!

Winter 2014-2015 Outlook

The seasonable weather has continue for much of the region during the past week. A cold front did move through the area early last week but temperatures quickly moderated over the weekend. The weather for the region is generally quiet as a strong coastal low pressure system is currently moving into Southern New England. A weak cold front is slowly moving through Ohio and could eventually lead to some snow showers Wednesday into Thursday. Once this system moves away milder air will return for the weekend.

Currently a weak cold front is moving through the area as a strong coastal storm is affecting New England. Most precipitation with the costal storm is in the form of rain except for locations well inland and high in elevation. Rain showers will be developing overnight for Northern Ohio and will change over to light show showers.

On Wednesday Northeast Ohio will be under the influence of the costal low with a colder northerly flow affecting the area. Light snow showers will persist as temperatures hold in the lower 30’s. Similar conditions will continue for the region on Thursday. Snow accumulations will be light with perhaps one or two inches locally.

On Friday the costal storm will be moving away and drier air will start to move into the area. Temperatures will warm up a few more degrees into the upper 30’s as sky conditions begin to clear. Temperatures continue to moderate over the weekend with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 40’s.

On Monday the region will still be under a mild southerly air flow. Temperatures will rise to near 50 degrees as a storm system approaches from the south and west.

Looking ahead the arctic air appears to stay locked up though the week before Christmas. Probabilities are that temperatures will general average above normal for the next 8-14 days.  At this time a white Christmas may be in jeopardy

Now it is time for my winter outlook which I really do not like to do or put much trust in. After last winter’s harsh cold and snow assault people are thinking this winter will be repeat. A local television station is predicting a consistently cold winter for Northeast Ohio. Accuweather  and the Old Farmer’s Almanac  also are predicting a cold and snowy winter for the region. While these predictions line up with one another, I believe the odds of a repeat cold and snowy winter are low for Northeast Ohio. I believe temperatures this winter will be near normal to slightly above normal. Snow fall has gotten off to a fast start but I do not believe that pace will last and we will end up with near to slight below normal snowfall amounts. As a side note NOAA is predicting a near normal winter. 

Seasonable December

Hello December and goodbye cold and snowy November! We have just closed the door on a top 10 coldest and snowiest November on record in Cleveland. That combination has led many in the region to have nightmare flashbacks of last winter and others to predict a repeat of a similar weather pattern this winter. While I will not be making predictions of the winter season in this posting I will say in the short term the weather pattern is looking nothing like last winter or the recently concluded November. A weak system is currently moving through the Ohio valley at this time. Another cold front will move through tomorrow before a more zonal weather pattern takes hold across the nation for the remainder of the forecast. This will provide a milder weather pattern for the country albeit a wet one for the West Coast.

Currently a weak system is moving through the Ohio Valley. It is producing a light wintry mix as it interacts with a cold air mass that is retreat to the north.

Wednesday temperatures will rise to near 40 ahead of the next weather system. It will push through late Wednesday with a threat of light rain. High temperatures will fall into the lower 30’s for Thursday.

Return flow out of the south will be getting establish on Friday. Temperatures will rise into the lower 40’s.

On Saturday another storm system will be moving up the Ohio Valley. It may spread light rain across the area much of the day with high temperatures remaining in the lower 40’s.

The next weak system should be tracking through the Ohio Valley on Monday. With no artic air in sight and temperatures in the 40’s, rain seems like the precipitation of choice. 

Brutal November Cold Continues

So much for easing into winter this cold season. Bitterly cold air has settled across the Eastern half of the US of A with half of the lower 48 reporting at least one inch of snow. Lake effect snow off of Lake Erie settled south into Northeastern Ohio Thursday evening though Friday dropping up to a foot of snow on eastern Cuyahoga County and up to six (6) inches near the airport. Sunday night into Monday morning a system tracking along an arctic front provided 3-6 inches of snow for much of the area. Thankfully the ground temperatures were warm enough to prevent much of the snow from sticking on the pavement. This same system also spun nearly twelve (12) tornadoes from Louisiana east into Georgia.  Now a much below normal air mass is centered over the eastern half of the country. Heavy lake effect snows are falling downwind of the Great Lakes. Northeast Ohio is being spared this time as a single intense snow band is hammering western New York State south of Buffalo.  Another shot of arctic air is on the way for Thursday before the deep trough lifts out and allows much more seasonable air to return for the weekend into early next week.

Currently unseasonably cold air is flowing into the nation from the Mississippi Valley eastward. It is producing heavy snowfall off the Great Lakes with snowfall rates approaching five (5) inches east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. High temperatures remained in the upper tens across all of Northern Ohio. Overnight lows around ten (10) degrees will be near record levels. 

On Wednesday a clipper system will move quickly through the Great Lakes. It will disrupt the lake effect snow bands and allow temperatures to reach near thirty-two (32) degrees across the region. Light snow may may fall during the day with accumulations not much more than one (1) inch. 

After the cold front moves through late Wednesday, more cold arctic air will return to the region. Lake Effect snow will mostly be directed into western New York but may move south if the winds turn more westerly or even northwesterly late Thursday. High temperatures will remain in the twenties (20's) on Thursday. On Friday a high pressure will move across the region. Temperatures during the day will remain in twenties (20's) but may rise overnight as warm air is advected into the area. 

On Saturday southerly winds will bring temperatures back to near seasonable levels. The snow cover should quickly begin to melt as temperatures move through the forties (40's).

On Sunday the warm up continues as a storm system strengthens over the middle Mississippi River Valley. High temperatures across the area should rise into the lower fifties (50's) and will melt the remaining snow. Ahead of the storm system there will be a potential for severe weather as a warm and moist air mass moves inland from the Gulf of Mexico. 

On Monday, the storm system will track through the Great Lakes region well north and west of Northern Ohio. High temperatures will make it into the fifties (50's) and fall during the day after the strong cold front moves through.  Look ahead to Thanksgiving day, the region may see temperatures remaining below normal, but not at the levels we are current experiencing this week.

Hello Winter!!

Though the calendar still stays November and the area was a washed in clear skies and mild 66 degree air yesterday, winter has arrived today. A strong cold front moved late Tuesday and has ushered in the first arctic air mass of the season. The storm system associated with the front produced heavy snow from Minnesota into Upper Michigan. Currently lake effect snow is ongoing off Lake Superior and should spread south and east off the other Great Lakes through tomorrow. The deep trough will continue to dig with reinforcing shots of cold air through the middle of next week. Of course with the deep trough over the Eastern US of A, mild air associated with a large ridge of high pressure will encompass much of the country west of the Rocky Mountains and into Alaska.

Currently the leading edge of the cold air is far to the east of the region. Winds out of the north are ushering in the below normal temperatures. 

On Thursday colder air will move into the area during the morning. Light snow may accompany the  arctic front as it moves through the area. Morning air temperatures in the middle 30's may be the highs for the day as temperatures remain steady or fall in to the lower 30's. Lake effect snow will be possible in the snow belt areas from Ashtabula into northwest Pennsylvania. By Friday morning snowfall amounts may reach near ten inches where the snow persists. 

On Saturday the flow will relax as a ridge moves into the area. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday may reach into the upper 30's before the next front moves through on Sunday. This front will drop high temperatures back in to the lower 30's and turn the lake effect snow machine back on. Another cold front will be on track to move the area on Monday. 

The coldest air so far this season will be moving into the area on Tuesday. High temperatures may not reach freezing and lake effect snows may impact areas from the central lake shore eastward. 

Quiet Weather Trending Colder

The sharp trough from Halloween weekend has moved off the east coast as an upper level ridge has taken its place over the Eastern US. Over the weekend a strong area of low pressure produced heavy snow over the southern Appalachians Mountains and eastern Maine. Light snowfall dusted areas from the Great Lakes Region east and as far south as South Carolina. Today much milder conditions have returned with many areas of the Great Lakes seeing high temperatures in the lower 60’s.  The mild weather will be fleeting as another upper level trough of low pressure carves out over the Eastern part of the county by the weekend.  A ridge of high pressure will be building over the Western States providing above normal temperatures for areas west of the Rocky Mountains.

Today the area is experiencing flow out of the south and west as high pressure moves off the East Coast. A storm system is beginning to organize over the central part of the country along a weak cold front.

On Tuesday the area will continue to see mild conditions with high temperatures in the middle to maybe even upper 60’s. The weak cold front will move the area late Tuesday with a threat of showers.

On Wednesday the weak cold front will have moved through the region. The air behind the front not terrible cold so high temperatures maybe be a few degrees above normal.

On Thursday a stronger area of low pressure will be taking aim on the area. The chances of rain be increasing during the day with near normal temperatures. After the front pushes through temperatures will fall below normal with high temperatures on Friday and Saturday remaining in the 40’s.

On Sunday another low pressure will be tracking through the Ohio River Valley. This system may generate rain showers as it moves by and it will allow another cold front out of Canada to target the area. With this pattern temperatures will stay below normal with next week possibly bringing the coldest air of the young cold weather season. 

Nice Weather Before Halloween

The generally quiet weather pattern has continued for the area this week. Temperatures most of the week were a few degrees below normal but a milder temperature regime will begin today. High pressure is in control providing clear skies and warming temperatures. A slight cool down will occur on Sunday before even warmer air moves in for the early part of the week. The tropical Atlantic has quieted down after a very active two week period. One week ago Hurricane Gonzalo moved across Bermuda with 110 mph sustained winds causing much damage but did not appear as severe as with Hurricane Fabian in 2003. Hurricane Ana remained south of the Hawaiian Islands but brought them copious amounts for rainfall.

Currently the high under flow out of the south and west. High temperatures for the region should rise into the lower 60’s under clear skies.

Saturday the southerly flow will be stronger in advance of a weak cool front. Temperatures will rise well into the middle 60’s before a slight chance of showers arrive tomorrow night.

Sunday the region will see a slight cool down with high temperatures around 60 degrees. The coolest of the air will be delivered to the New England States.

Early next week warmer air will be advected into the area on the southerly winds. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be a few degrees on either side of 70! A cool front will move through on Tuesday sending high temperatures back down to seasonable values in the upper 50’s. With the zonal flow, it appears temperatures in the extended (6-14 days) will be near to slightly above normal. 

Hurricane Gonzalo and Tornado Outbreak

After an extended break from weather updates, I am back with a lot of news about the current active weather.  The weather during the past week in Cleveland has featured the first frost (October 12) and a balmy 77 degree high (October 14). The unseasonably warm conditions were ended by a strong upper level system moving slowly east across the nation. This system generated more than thirty (30) confirmed tornadoes between October 12-15 that resulted in two (2) deaths. The deep trough associated with the system is moving off the East Coast and is lifting major hurricane Gonzalo north towards Bermuda, less than one week after Tropical Storm Fay impacted the island. In the central Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Ana is organizing south east of Hawaii and is on a track to affect much of the Hawaiian Islands.

A tornado/severe weather outbreak occurred across the south central portion of the nation over a several day period with the worst activity on October 13, 2014. On this day the severe weather was centered on the Mississippi River valley as the atmospheric dynamics were the most conducive to destructive weather.

Currently the upper level low is slowly moving across Ohio generating cloudy and at times rainy conditions. High temperatures will be near 60 degrees today with a little sunshine.

Tomorrow the main system will move east as another colder system approaches from the west. High temperatures ahead of the system will warm into the middle and upper 60’s. Once the system pass temperatures will fall below normal for the next several days with high temperatures remaining in the lower to middle 50’s through Wednesday.

Looking ahead to the week of October 26^th, probabilities are trending toward above normal temperatures.

The tropical Atlantic is seeing late season tropical activity. Last week Hurricane Fay developed north of Puerto Rico and affected Bermuda with tropical force winds before moving east in the Atlantic and dissipating. This week Hurricane Gonzalo formed to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles and brought hurricane conditions to the British Virgin Islands. The storm then strengthened to a category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds and it is heading towards Bermuda. The storm will generally weaken gradually but should affect Bermuda as a category 3 hurricane late Friday.

The Hawaiian Island chain is closely watching Tropical Storm Ana. It formed in the Central Pacific earlier this week and is expected to reach hurricane status as it approaches the main island. At this time Ana may make landfall on Kauai as a tropical storm early next week.