Unprecedented April Snowfall???

Cleveland has experienced a cold few days after three weeks of very warm weather. The dramatic change of weather fortunes was brought by a very slow moving cold upper level system that tracked east across the Great Lakes region. The cold peaked on Thursday as high temperatures remained in the upper thirties (30’s) and early morning saw some areas received one to two (1-2) inches of snowfall on grassy surfaces. While this was a shock to the system it is in no way record shattering or unprecedented.  Today is the ten (10) year anniversary of a three day snow event for the area. A late season cold upper trough sat over of the area and brought one to three (1-3) FEET of snow to the area. It is a reminder that many times the current conditions could be worse! The weather pattern is slowly transitioning as an area of low pressure is organizing over the central part of the country. This system systems posed to generate to severe weather outbreak across the southern tier of the country this weekend. After a very slow start to the tornado season the USA has preliminary experienced more than 129 reports of tornadoes this month alone! That number appears likely to rise by the time this weekend is over.

While the area experienced one to two (1-2) inches of snowfall yesterday, ten (10) years ago a much larger snowfall event was beginning. A cold upper level low pressure system stalled over the central Great Lakes and provided the perfect conditions for a late season lake enhanced snowfall.  Though air temperatures rarely dipped below freezing the heavy rate of snowfall allowed one to three (1-3) feet of snow to occur over many sections of Northeastern Ohio. This heavy snowfall brought down many trees across the area which just had their leaves come out.

Currently the area is warming up after a record cold morning across the area. This morning’s low of twenty-seven (27) degrees is a new record low for the date. Under bright sunshine afternoon temperatures will rebound to a few degrees on either side of fifty (50). A storm system organizing of the central USA will affect a large area with severe weather.

A severe weather outbreak is anticipated to begin today. Areas from Kansas south into central Texas will be at risk for large hail, strong damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

On Saturday the system of the central portion of the country will move eastward. Locally the chances for rainfall will increase as you move south and areas near Lake Erie will possibly remain rain free. High temperatures should rise near fifty (50) degrees again across the area. The severe weather will continue with the system and will be centered on the lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.

The severe weather outbreak will push east on Saturday. The greatest chance for a tornado outbreak will be south of the warm front across Kentucky and Tennessee. There is also a chance for a few strong tornadoes so residents should stay alert for rapidly changing weather conditions.

On Sunday the storm system will push off the eastern seaboard as another system organizes over Texas. Northeast Ohio weather conditions should be quiet as high temperatures rise into the fifties (50’s). A threat for severe weather will once again exist for much of Texas. Through midweek the local area may stay in-between storm systems. This could provide for quiet but cool conditions for the area as high temperatures stay in the middle to upper fifties (50’s)

The quiet conditions should continue through Wednesday as a storm system tracks near the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Without a flow out of the south high temperatures will be within a couple degrees of sixty (60). Looking ahead temperatures will trend back to normal by the end of next week and conditions will remain largely quiet. 

Slow Moving Low Pressure

Areas across the middle section of the country continue to pick up the pieces after a blitz for tornadoes on April 9, 2015. The preceding day was expected to be the most dangerous but the most violent weather struck Northern Illinois last Thursday. Thankful the weather in that section of the country is much quieter than last week. A large upper level low pressure spun possibly two dozen tornadoes across the southern plans yesterday but none appeared to be violent or deadly. Locally the weather has largely been quiet and warm. Weak cool fronts have moved through during the week not alter temperatures whatsoever. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend before a cut-off low pressure brings a prolong period of cool and unsettled weather for much of next week.

The most violent and deadliest tornado of the year so far struck Northern Illinois on April 9, 2015. It was one of approximately two dozen tornadoes that struck that day. The total number of tornadoes for that and the previous is approximately thirty (30).

Currently the local area is under the influence of high pressure. Skies are currently clear and high temperatures are well into the sixties. A strong and slow moving low pressure is over Eastern New Mexico and is generating heavy snow for the Colorado Front Range and severe weather across Central Texas.

On Saturday the low will move very slow to the north and will once again generate severe weather across the Central and Lower Plain States. This will allow nice weather to continue locally with high temperatures approaching the seventy (70) degree mark. Conditions on Sunday will be similar but the area of severe weather will shift eastward and be centered on the Lower Mississippi River Valley.

On Monday the storm system will continue to move slowly eastward and will spread showers and possibly thunderstorms to the local area. Timing of the rain is uncertain but temperatures may approach seventy (70) again if the rain holds off for much of the day.

Tuesday will start the cool, wet and unsettled period for the area. A low pressure system will stall over the Great Lakes region and cause much cooler conditions for the area. Conditions will be mostly cloudy throughout the period but peaks of sunshine will also occur. High temperatures will be below normal and will not rise much above the middle fifties (50’s) from Tuesday through Friday.

April 8-9, 2015 Severe Weather

After a brief cool down on Saturday the local area has quickly warmed back to above normal temperatures. A stationary front is position across Northern Ohio and is creating a sharp temperature gradient. North of the front temperatures are in the low forties (40’s) will just to the south of the front temperatures are in the sixties (60’s). This stationary front is continues west to the southern plains.  A very active weather pattern is currently taking shape over the midsection of the country at the tail end of this front. A low pressure trough is moving out of the Inter-mountain West and warm moist air streams north out of the Gulf of Mexico. As this trough of low pressure moves east it will generate severe weather until it pushes off the East Coast.

 Currently the area is being bisected by a stationary front. Temperatures vary widely (60’s-40’s) across the area dependent on the location of the front. A trough of low pressure is moving into the central plains  and is causing severe weather to develop from Texas into Missouri. In addition the stationary front is active with areas of thunderstorms traveling along it from Illinois into Ohio.

The threat for severe weather is greatest from Oklahoma into Missouri were a moderate risk of severe weather exists A much larger area has an enhanced risk of severe weather. All modes of severe weather will be possible including large hail, strong straight line winds, and a few strong tornadoes. Residents under watches and warnings should be on alert if threatening weather approaches.

On Thursday the entire system will move to the east. A warm front with the storm system will lift north of the area allowing what should be the first day of seventy (70) degree weather. This warmth will come with a price as the entire area will be at risk for severe weather throughout the day.

A large area of the severe weather will be possible as a cold front and storm system marches east. Once again all modes of severe weather including large hail, damage winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Residents should be alert for rapidly changing weather conditions.

On Friday the system will be affecting the Eastern Seaboard. Severe weather will be possible with the frontal passage for areas along the East Coast. Locally much drier and cooler conditions will move in with high temperatures in the fifties (50’s). The weather will be continue to be cool and dry on Saturday will similar conditions.

On Sunday a warm-up will commence as the area is on the backside of a high pressure moving east. Temperatures will rebound back to around sixty (60) degrees.  Conditions on Monday will be similar as a weak cool front approaches the area from the west.

Depending on the speed of the week system Tuesday may features some rain showers. Temperatures should not decline much if at all with a southerly flow continuing on Tuesday. 

Spring’s Arrival?

Locally conditions are much improved from the first half of last weekend. Light snow fell much of Friday and added up to about an inch or two. High temperatures remained below freezing all day Saturday and Sunday temps rose into the forties (40's). Last week also saw the first tornadoes for March 2015 and unfortunately a fatality near Tulsa, Oklahoma. Since then locally conditions have been largely pleasant with high temperatures a few degrees on either side of normal. The weather pattern is becoming increasingly active with the area's first chance of thunderstorms arriving and yes a chance of some snow as well.

Currently a storm system is organizing over the central part of the country. This system has already push flow out of the south over the area which has allowed temperatures to rise to near sixty (60) degrees. Severe thunderstorms are possible for the central part of the country.

Tomorrow the system will force a warm front north of the area. This should promote strong southerly winds and if enough sunshine develops high temperatures will rise into the lower seventies (70’s). With this increased warmth and moisture instability will be on the increase. Thunderstorms during the evening are likely for the area with the most likely area experiencing severe weather remaining a bit further south in the lower and middle Ohio River Valley.

On Friday the front will move through early in the day and stall near the Ohio River. Areas near Lake Erie my dry out for a period before precipitation is pushed back in to the area ahead of strengthening low pressure traveling up the stalled front. Early day highs will be in the fifties (50’s) before colder air moves in later in the day. Depending on the track and amount of cold air available some snow will be possible before the precipitation ends. The most likely locations for accumulating snow will be to the east of Cleveland into Northwest Pennsylvania. Severe thunderstorms will again be possible for the lower Mississippi River Valley. Once the system moves through quiet and cooler weather will move in for Saturday with high temperatures remaining in the forties (40’s)

On Sunday a front will set up near the area which will play havoc with the weather for the first half of the week. On Sunday high temperatures will be near fifty (50) with a threat of showers. The threat of showers will continue every day until a storm system pushes the front through late Tuesday. High temperatures during the period will be defendant of where the front sets up but could be in the lower to middle fifties (50’s) 

Looking area the area should experience temperatures near seasonable levels as a wet active weather pattern becomes established.