Continued Cold

Another mild weekend has quickly faded in the the rear mirror. Saturday's temperatures in the  50's have been replaced with today's lower 20's and persistent snows off the lake.  This week the cold will maintain is grip of the area with a couple quick moving and weak low pressure systems affect the region during the first half of the week. On Wednesday a low pressure will begin to organize over the Oklahoma Panhandle and move through the Ohio Valley on Thursday. The track is starting to come together and northern Ohio appears to be line for a decent synoptic snowfall. Amounts of more than six (6) inches are possible but will be dependant on how far north the low actually moves and how quickly the low transitions to the east coast. Once the low moves east of the area, the coldest air of the season move over the area on Friday with high temperatures not reaching 20.

Wednesday the low pressure will organize over the Central Plains will a warm front will move north in the Ohio Valley. This warm front will be the approximate location of the track of the low pressure system.

The low pressure will intensify early Thursday as it moves through the Ohio Valley. Moisture will be spread north of the cold front and ahead of the low pressure producing snow and a wintry mixture. The heaviest snow will fall just to north of the area that receives the icy mixture.  As the system passes, additional moisture may be added from Lake Erie.

Current snowfall predictions from Wednesday through Friday morning are for more than ten (10) inches for counties along the lake shore. Total amounts will depend on how quickly the low jumps to the East Coast

The low pressure will intensify further off the East Coast on Friday allowing a return to much colder air advecting into the region on northerly winds. High temperatures on Friday will not rise above 20 degrees.

 The extreme cold will be short lived as high temperatures on Saturday will rise to near 30 degrees. Another front will move through on Sunday which will usher a return to colder than normal temperatures for early next week. How cold this air mass will be is not agreed upon by the models at this time, but subzero temperatures will be possible overnight. Locals wanting a break from the persistent cold pattern may get their wish as there are indications that late next week the weather pattern will alter with the trough migrating to the Western USA.

Reality Check

After a weekend that featured record high temperatures, flooding rains, and snow along the lake shore, the area is back into the grips of winter. Sunday 's high of 63 degrees was one degree away from a record for the date and several cities in Northern Ohio did break record highs.  The warmth, snow melt  and heavy rains pushed many area streams and rivers into flood stage. Most have now receded but a few are still in flood stage but they too will fall below flood stage in the next couple of days.   Approximately eleven (11) tornadoes hit the mid south this past Friday and Saturday resulting in at least two (2) losses of life. Now with the Eastern USA under northwest flow, a colder, drier and more stable weather pattern will hold for the rest of the holiday week.On Christmas Eve temperatures across Northern Ohio fell into the upper tens with lake effect snows blowing off of Lake Erie; a white Christmas will be had by some. For Christmas it will cloudy and a bit cold for this time of the year with high temperatures not rising above freezing.  A week disturbance may spread some light snow across the area late Christmas day into the night. Temperatures will moderate the rest of the week with high temperatures around 40 degrees all weekend before the next system moves in late Sunday.

Light snow is being produced by the northwest flow over the lake. Cold temperatures have once again moved in over Northeast Ohio

Christmas Day should be mostly quiet as high pressure moves off to the east of the area allowing a weakening low pressure system to move through the Great Lakes region. 

High pressure will  maintain its influence through Saturday providing moderating temperatures and at times sunshine.

Sunday evening the next cold front will be moving through. This will return the area to the colder than normal temperatures next week. Looking ahead into next week, an upper level trough is forecast to maintain and maybe even deepen across the Eastern USA. Our attention will turn quickly to a low pressure that will organize along the northern gulf coast for the potential that it will spread snow to our area in the early days of the New Year. 

Mild Weekend

The December thaw has begun for much of the Eastern USA.  A  low pressure is dropping through the Four Corners region and that is providing a southwest flow ahead of it. Several small low pressure systems will eject out of the trough before the main system moves out on Saturday. In the meantime moisture and warm air will stream north out of the Gulf of Mexico. A stalled front will be the focus for round after round of rain which will lead to flooding concerns in the Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast.  Severe weather, including isolated tornadoes, will be possible in the lower Mississippi Valley into the mid South. Moisture overrunning the front will spread snowy and icy weather from the Texas Panhandle to Southeastern Wisconsin. To say the least, this will be a very active weekend before Christmas!

Currently the front stretches from Texas northeast through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This front will not move much until the main low moves out of the Southwest on Saturday.

On Saturday the stalled front will be the focus for training of rain on Saturday. This region will be be on the north side of the front after it sags slightly south Friday night. The main low pressure will move out of the Southwest while deepening. This will spark severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley and spread heavy rain along the stalled front.

Conditions are coming together for a moderate risk of severe weather in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Strong winds will be most likely, but isolated tornadoes are possible if discrete super cells develop ahead of the main convective band associated with the front. 

Heavy rain, 2-4 inches, on top of a melting snow pack in the Ohio Valley will generate local and river flooding issues. 

The low pressure and front will sweep through the area Sunday night bringing a return to below normal high temperatures in the 20's.Looking ahead, it will remain chilly through Christmas. The prospects for a White Christmas are dimming, but snow showers on Monday and Tuesday may provide snow cover for areas downwind of Lake Erie. After Christmas the trough of low pressure may deepen over the Great Lakes allowing fresh arctic air masses to spread into the area. 

A Break(Temporary) from Wintry Weather

This past weekend, the area generally  received 3-6 inches of snow from the synoptic system that passed through the Ohio Vally. The system grabbed a little extra warm air so sleet and even some mixed in with the snow for a period of time Saturday night. Now that that system is well out in the Atlantic Ocean, colder air is being brought in on the northwest air flow. Two quick systems will affect the air in the next 24 hours spreading 1-3 inches of snowfall by the Tuesday evening. After that a nice moderation in temperatures will occur Thursday and Friday resulting in above normal temperatures.

Two quick low pressure systems will trek through the air spreading a round of snow Tuesday morning followed by a break at mid-day. Another round of snow will move through the area by Tuesday evening. 

By Thursday, a storm system will move northeast through the center of the country placing the Ohio Valley in the warm section for a few days. Temperatures in the 40's and rain showers will be likely throughout the period. The front will finally push through Saturday into Sunday and by that time, flooding may be an issue.

Looking ahead to Christmas week,  there may be a chance for a white Christmas for the area.  After this long period of cold and snow, one would think it would be certain. Another system is poised to move through the region during the middle of the week and that will determine if there will be snow on the ground Christmas Morning. 

General Snowfall

 The coldest air we have experienced in December since 2008 is now moderating. Today's morning low of 20 degrees is 12 degrees above yesterday's frigid low. Our attention now turns to the low pressure system that will be moving out of the southern plans and through the Ohio Valley. The low will then transfer the energy to an East Coast low pressure that will track quickly up the coast. This system will produce moderate and at times heavy snowfall across the area starting Friday night continuing through much of Saturday. Snowfall amounts of between 3-6 inches are likely with this system by the time the snow ends Sunday morning. Light additional accumulations from lake effect are possible on Sunday before everything wraps up. High temperatures Friday will rise into the upper 20's and near freezing on Saturday before dropping into the mid 20's on Sunday. Monday is looking like a quiet weather day with chance of light snow and high temperatures in the mid 20's.

Low pressure will organize over theSouthern Plains on Friday before moving through the Ohio Valley on Satrurday

Low Pressure with an inverted trough will move through the Ohio Valley on Saturday while another low pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic Coast.  It will produce a general snowfall for the area with totals generally 3-6 inches. 

High pressure will provide a quiet day for the area on Monday. Temperatures will remain cold with high temperatures remaining in the mid 20's

Looking ahead into late next week. The weather pattern is still trending towards a moderate. The amount and how long it will last is still undermined due to large differences  between the models. Early next week, we will take a closer look at how the pattern will evolve once the models converge on a solution.

The Cold Continues

The cold air is settling in after a brief break early Monday morning. Temperatures will get progressive colder with Thursday being the coldest. A slight moderation is expected before the next storm system crosses the area on Saturday bringing a return to much below average temperatures.

The next cold front is on track to move through on Wednesday. Temperatures on Thursday will struggle to get to 20 degrees for a high. The dry nature of the air mass and wind direction should keep most of the lake effect snow in Western New York and Northeastern Pennsylvania.

The arctic high pressure will be moving east of the area on Friday allowing  for a slow out of the south and a slight moderation of temperatures.

Looking at the extended, temperatures will remain colder than normal but may moderate as we head into next week as a ridge builds in the Southeastern states and the trough axis slides to the west.

Tranquil Break is Over

After two spring like days with high temperatures in the 60's, a rude return to a wintry reality is in store for the region starting Friday morning. The front has already cleared much of Northeastern Ohio and as a result temperatures will fall into the lower 30's tonight.  A wave of low pressure will move up the stalled front spreading snow into the area late Thursday night and into much of the day Friday. Once this low clears the area temperatures will fall further with highs only into the upper 20's on Saturday. Temperatures will rise through the day Sunday as another low pressure from the Gulf Of Mexico tracks into the central Great Lakes. This will spread snow and or a wintry mix into the region Sunday that should eventually change to rain by Monday morning. Once this system clears the area later Monday. The coldest air of the season so far moves into the region with high temperatures remaining in the 20's for Tuesday. This should get the Lake Erie snow machine going with the primary snow belt east of Cleveland the focus for the heaviest snow.

The cold front has moved through the area, setting the stage for snowfall late tonight into Friday.

Precipitation will develop on the backside of the front first beginning as rain and then transitioning into snow. 

*Update: As of Friday afternoon, the models are shifting the storm to the south and east which has lowered snowfall amounts to 1-3 inches for the area.

Sunday a low along the Gulf Coast will form and begin to track into the Central Great Lakes spreading precipitation ahead of it. Snow will spread into the region first before transitioning into rain Sunday night.

The low will send a cold front through the area early Monday, but the arctic front will arrive later that evening bringing coldest air of the season to the area.

Quiet Holiday and Weekend

Yesterday's snow was definitely more hype than bite as snowfall in Northeast Ohio generally range from one (1) to four (4) inches.  Locations from Canton to Youngstown picked up around six (6) inches but even those totals were far less than the anticipated 12+ inch amounts. The weather pattern will quiet down for the rest of the holiday week, but it will remain unseasonably cold with high temps slowly rising to near 40 degrees by Sunday.  Conditions will remain dry until the next system approaches region the middle of next week.

Snowfall across the area was generally light; note the heavier snowfall from Canton to Youngstown. 

High pressure will maintain dry and unseasonably cold temperatures through the weekend.

Looking forward into next week, after approaching seasonable temperatures mid-week,a trough may swing through the area late next week, bringing a fresh blast of cold Arctic air. 

Pre-Thanksgiving Day General Snow

As expected this past weekend was a very cold one for the region, though it was far from breaking any record cold temperatures. Snowfall was generally light with the heaviest snow confined to Pennsylvania. Our attention now turns to the storm system organizing in the Gulf of Mexico. Current model trends are pointing to a storm that the moves up the East Coast, but far enough west to spread a general snowfall into eastern Ohio. The snowfall amounts will increase from west to east with the highest amounts in locations bordering Pennsylvania. Depending on the eventual track of the low pressure, snow fall amounts of 3-6 inches seem possible for most of the Cleveland metro area. Some lake effect snow showers may develop after the storm moves out on Wednesday that could add a few inches to the storm total.

Low pressure will ride up the East Coast  late Tuesday spreading snow into Northeast Ohio.

High potential for more than four (4) inches of snow in eastern Ohio, areas near the PA. border may see a foot of snow.

There will be a wide rage of snowfall amounts across Northeast Ohio.

Once this storm moves east, high pressure will generally take control allowing temperatures to slowly moderate to the around 40 degrees by Saturday. Looking ahead, the weather pattern appears to transition into one with a trough in the West and a suppressed ridge of high pressure in the Southeast. This should shift most of the arctic air to the High Plains and Mountain West regions and allow temperatures in the Eastern States to approach normal.

Here we go again

This weekend is shaping up to be very cold and for some, very snowy. The arctic front will clear the area Saturday afternoon and temperatures will plunge afterwards.  Lake effect snow bands will set up late Saturday evening with the exact location, intensity and duration to be determined. It appears that extreme Northeast Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania will have the best potential to pick up significant snowfall. Everyone will share in the cold with high temperatures remaining in the 20's region wide.  By Monday the coldest air will move east but temperatures will remain below normal with highs in the 30's.

 The arctic front will moving through the area quickly on Saturday bringing a fresh round of bitterly cold air.

 Sunday will be the coldest day of the weekend with high temperatures remaining in the 20's and windy conditions producing low windchills. 

The arctic high and coldest air will move east on Monday, but the next arctic front will already be on our doorstep. This may set the stage for a coastal storm to affect the east coast on Wednesday with rain, snow and wind . It is much too early to focus on specifics, but this warrants watching.

Tornado Outbreak

Tragically a tornado outbreak did occur on yesterday Sunday November 17. Approximately 70 tornadoes tore through Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee leaving death and destruction.  Our prayers go out to the many victims.  By the time the storms reached Northeast Ohio, they were not as intense but brought very high winds to much of the area. This weather was caused by the well advertised strong low pressure and front  which has cleared much of the eastern USA leaving much cooler air in its wake. Temperatures have fallen to the lower 40's in the area; while cool are not nearly as drastic as the early predicted low 30's. Temperatures will slowly moderate into the upper 40's by Thursday before the first in a series of cold fronts moving through the area potentially leading to much colder temperatures for early next
week.

The current number of tornadoes is approximate until field surveys confirm the actual numbers.

The next front is slated to approarch the area on Thursday and it will be the first in a series of progressively colder airmasses. 

Both the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting very cold air arriving into the region on Sunday. There is a potential for significant snowfall beginning Saturday night for Northeast Ohio. More details later this week. 

Beyond that period, the Pacific and Arctic oscillations are pointing towards a ridge in the west and a trough in the east which may facilitate a period of colder than normal temperatures for the eastern half of the nation. 

Roller Coaster Continues

As is typical for Fall and Spring, the large weather swings will continue for the foreseeable future. Currently temperatures are moderating from the most recent arctic air invasion. Temperatures this weekend will warm everyday possibly reaching the mid to upper 60's by Sunday. A quickly deepening low pressure system and strong cold front will bring rain and potentially severe thunderstorms Sunday evening. The front will move through early Monday morning sending temperatures crashing into the upper 30's by evening. Currently the trough is not looking as deep as earlier predicted so this shot of arctic air does not appear to be as extreme as what we experienced on the 12th of this month. Temperatures will moderate starting Wednesday and continue until the next front approaches late in the week.

The flow will become  more southerly on Saturday propelling temperatures into the mid and upper 50's as the western storm system approaches the Plains. 

The western system will quickly deepen as it approaches the western Great Lakes on Sunday bringing more warmth and moisture into the Ohio Valley. Strong southerly winds will bring temperatures into the 60's across much of the area.

The combination of warmth, moisture, upper level support and a strong low pressure system will provide an environment conducive for severe thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of producing strong winds and if enough sunshine breaks through to destabilize the atmosphere, tornadoes. Please stay alert to this potentially dangerous weather situation.

Both the ECMWF and GFS  indicate a shot of arctic air arriving on Monday possibly producing some lake-effect snow in northeast Ohio Monday night. Temperatures should not rise above 40 on Tuesday. 

Wednesday this cold air will move off to the east with temperatures moderating back into the 40's.