Mild Weekend

The December thaw has begun for much of the Eastern USA.  A  low pressure is dropping through the Four Corners region and that is providing a southwest flow ahead of it. Several small low pressure systems will eject out of the trough before the main system moves out on Saturday. In the meantime moisture and warm air will stream north out of the Gulf of Mexico. A stalled front will be the focus for round after round of rain which will lead to flooding concerns in the Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast.  Severe weather, including isolated tornadoes, will be possible in the lower Mississippi Valley into the mid South. Moisture overrunning the front will spread snowy and icy weather from the Texas Panhandle to Southeastern Wisconsin. To say the least, this will be a very active weekend before Christmas!

Currently the front stretches from Texas northeast through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This front will not move much until the main low moves out of the Southwest on Saturday.

On Saturday the stalled front will be the focus for training of rain on Saturday. This region will be be on the north side of the front after it sags slightly south Friday night. The main low pressure will move out of the Southwest while deepening. This will spark severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley and spread heavy rain along the stalled front.

Conditions are coming together for a moderate risk of severe weather in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Strong winds will be most likely, but isolated tornadoes are possible if discrete super cells develop ahead of the main convective band associated with the front. 

Heavy rain, 2-4 inches, on top of a melting snow pack in the Ohio Valley will generate local and river flooding issues. 

The low pressure and front will sweep through the area Sunday night bringing a return to below normal high temperatures in the 20's.Looking ahead, it will remain chilly through Christmas. The prospects for a White Christmas are dimming, but snow showers on Monday and Tuesday may provide snow cover for areas downwind of Lake Erie. After Christmas the trough of low pressure may deepen over the Great Lakes allowing fresh arctic air masses to spread into the area.