Beginning of an Active Pattern

This week’s arctic air mass is quickly fading in the rear mirror as a more zonal and active weather pattern is beginning to take shape. The  deep trough which allowed subzero readings through the northern tier of the country and provided the cold air for the snow in the Southeast is being replace by a broad trough centered over the eastern Rocky Mountains. This will allow the air to moderated over Northeastern Ohio while also allowing stronger systems to move through the Ohio Valley. Unfortunately, overall colder than normal temperatures will persist but the additional storminess will generate more wintry precipitation than recently experienced. The first indications of this change will be this weekend as a storm system ejects out of the West.  The low pressure will track to our north and west keeping the snow to our west and our area in the warm sector. A warm front will develop and move north of the area allowing temperatures to rise into the 40’s on Saturday. Light snow will fall overnight Friday before becoming rain during the day on Saturday. The front will push through the area Saturday night bringing colder readings and possible light snow.  The next, and what appears to be a much more major system, will not affect the area until Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will have the potential to affect the area with heavy snowfall if the current track of the low pressure to our south and west holds true.

Currently a low pressure system is organizing over the southern Plains. A warm front will develop and move to the north of Ohio. Light snows will develop in response and cross the area overnight.

Saturday with the warm front north of the area, Northeast Ohio will be in the warm sector with temperatures in the 40’s and rain showers. The front will move through overnight bringing a return to colder conditions. Precipitation at this time looks light so snow melt will not be major.

Monday will be the quiet before the storm. High pressure will be moving through the area providing sunny but cold conditions. Another cold front will be approaching the Great Lakes region from the north and west.  The energy for the major storm system next week will be moving through west Texas as this time.  By Monday’s update the track and strength of the storm system to impact the area midweek should be more certain. At that time I will layout the particular impacts for our region.

Moderation in View

This past weekend storm was an over achiever in the snow department. With added moisture from the Great Lakes, snowfall amounts in the Cleveland area were in the 5-10 inch range. With an addition 1-2 inches of snowfall from a system on Sunday, the region had a very snowy weekend.  Early morning temperatures today near forty degrees  (40) have fallen rapidly to around twelve degrees (12) this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to fall and by Tuesday morning, temperatures near ten below (-10) will be common. Tuesday temperatures will struggle to rise most of the day but should reach a few degrees above zero. Overnight Tuesday will be another cold one with temperatures approaching ten below (-10) again before the air mass begins to moderate on Wednesday.  This cold air seems to be about five (5) degrees warmer than the one we experienced at the beginning of this month.The moderation in temperatures will continue though the end of the week with high temperatures approaching the freezing mark by the weekend. As we enter into February, the area looks to transition into a more active pattern as the strong western ridge weakens and allows a broad trough to form, centered over the eastern Rocky Mountains.

Currently the Arctic boundary is located far to our south and east. Conditions for our area will be dry and cold for next few days while an area of low pressure spreads snow and ice from Louisiana to North Carolina. Tonight will be dangerously cold across the area as temperatures fall to near ten below (-10) with wind chills near twenty-five below (-25). Temperatures on Tuesday will only rise to near five degrees above zero (5).

Wednesday the Arctic high pressure will be moving east of the Ohio Valley providing one more sub-zero morning for the area on Wednesday. Thereafter temperatures will begin to moderate under a flow out of the south and west. 

Friday a slow moving system will move through the area with some light precipitation. Temperatures should remain cold enough for snow but rain could mix in, especially for areas south of Canton. Looking ahead, the area will remain in a colder than normal pattern through at least the first week of February. A more broad trough across the northern tier of the country should allow a moderation of temperatures in the Ohio Valley, but also more storminess which could produce decent snows in the area. 

More Cold and Snow

Temperatures last night dipped a few degrees below zero area wide. This was after a clipper system moved through the area generating 2-4 inches of snowfall for much of the area. Even with Lake Erie mostly frozen over, lake effect snow fell much of the day over the lake shore counties.  One must remember heat transfer through Lake Erie is reduced and not eliminated by the presence of ice on the lake and moisture from the upstream Great Lakes can be squeezed out to produce lake effect snowfall here.  Enjoy the early sunshine today as this is definitely the calm before a very active period starts tonight. Clouds and wind will be on the increase throughout today ahead of the next storm system moving out of central Canada. The winds will produce blowing and drifting snow as well as add a chill to the air even though temperatures will warm to near twenty (20) degrees today. Tonight through Saturday morning, the system will produce snowfall across the area in the range of 3-6 inches. Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the lower 20’s before dropping into the single digits Saturday night. On Sunday another clipper system will race through the area in the evening with windy conditions and dropping snowfall in the 1-3 inch range. Temperatures will rise again into the lower 20’s before crashing overnight.

Currently high pressure is moving east of the area providing clear skies and cold conditions across the area. The next system is organizing over central Canada will bring increasing clouds and winds as the day progresses.

Overnight and early Saturday morning, the system will move through the area spreading moderate and possibly heavy now. In addition to the snow, blowing and drifting snow from the high winds will produce reduced visibilities.

 Snowfall for much of Northeast Ohio will be in the 3-6 inch range.

Sunday another system will cross the area late in the day with more snow (1-3 inches) and windy conditions.

Looking ahead, the front that moves through overnight Sunday will usher in frigid temperatures for the first part of the week. High temperatures on Tuesday and possible Wednesday will hold in the single digits with overnight temperatures dropping to near 10 below zero (-10).  After Wednesday temperatures look to moderate into the 20’s though that is still approximately ten (10) degrees below average for this time of the year. 

COLD!!!!

The current weather pattern is more of what you see is what you get. The main difference on the weather map today is the snow storm hitting the East Coast from Washington D.C. to Boston. This system will spread 6-12+ inches of snow in this corridor by tomorrow evening. A system responsible for this storm moved to the west and south of this area spreading 2-4 inches of snow along its track. In it's wake is more cold area pouring south out of central Canada. High temperatures each day through Friday will not rise above twenty (20) degrees with overnight lows a few degrees on either side of zero (0). Wednesday night another system will affect the area spreading light snows that will last into Thursday. Snowfall mounts should generally be in the 1-3 inch range. Once it passes, you guessed right, a return to Arctic cold air.

The current weather map shows the East Coast system spreading heavy snow along from Washington D.C. to Boston. A cold air mass is located over the area with the system to affect the region on Wednesday currently located over Minnesota.

Thursday a storm system will be moving through the Eastern Great Lakes bringing light snow and cold air.

On Friday, the area will be pretty quiet and with a flow out of the southwest, high temperatures will attempt to rise to near twenty (20) degrees. Looking ahead more cold air is in store for the last week in January. Eventually an Arctic high pressure will work through the area and may provide overnight temperatures solidly below zero (0). No major warm-up is in sight but there are subtle signs the weather pattern along western North America may change. This may allow storm systems to affect the Pacific Northwest USA and lead to a moderation of temperatures over our area as we head into February. Its a long way off so stay tuned!

More of the Same....

The weather pattern for the next few days and even the next few weeks is appearing consistent across the country, cold in the East and warm in the West. This is the same weather pattern that begun in November and unfortunately it is only going to strengthen in the foreseeable future. A trough is currently located over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region allowing cold air to flow south out of Canada into the Eastern USA.  At the same time a large ridge is well establish across the West which is keeping Coastal Pacific Regions to the Rocky Mountains very warm and extremely dry. This ridge is directing storm systems into Alaska allowing large areas of that state to see much above average temperatures. This means that for Northeastern Ohio a steady parade of systems out of Canada will affect the area bringing consistently cold air and light snow. Currently there is no deep snow pack and none is forecast to develop as long as these systems stay moisture starved. This may prevent the area from becoming as cold as it was earlier this month.

Currently a weak system is moving through the Great Lakes. Light snow will moving through the area and temperatures today will drop into the 20's as colder air moves into the area. Saturday high temperatures will remain in the 20's area wide.

Sunday a weak storm system will provide very weak warm air advection  and bring some very light snows to the area.

Monday the area will see early morning highs near freezing before a strong cold front moves through the area sending temperatures falling into the upper teens. Highs for the the middle part of the week to do not appear to rise above 20 and low temperatures will be around zero (0) degrees. 

Looking ahead this pattern will continue with colder the average temperatures through the end of the month. 

Changeable Weather Ahead

Today marks the last day of weather "calm" for the region. High temperatures since Friday have been rather mild especially considering this time last week sub-zero readings were widespread. The first in a series of clipper system will affect the region this evening into tonight bringing light rain that will change over to light snow by the morning. High temperatures tomorrow will hold around the freezing mark which is near normal for this time of the year. Another system will organize over southern Canada on Thursday and move through the region on Friday. This system will have more strength and cold air than the first so it will drop temperatures to below normal levels.

Currently a weak system is over the Western Great Lakes and it will move quickly through the area overnight bringing a return to seasonable temperatures and light rain and then snow. No significant accumulations or lake effect are expected.

On Thursday a stronger system will be organizing over Southern Canada. This system will move south and east bringing more snow showers and colder air with it on Friday.

In the extended yet another pattern change is on the horizon. An upper level ridge is expected to rebuild over the Northeastern Pacific which will lead to a trough developing over the Eastern USA. This will return the area to well below normal temperatures and increased storminess, depending on the track of low pressure systems moving through the trough. As the pattern maintains and strengthens, the air moving south out of Canada will continue to get colder with each passing Arctic front.

January Thaw

A January thaw is currently underway. Before we move forward, let’s take a minute to look at the Arctic cold that was experienced this week. Though the air was brutally cold, for most it was not historically cold. Broadly, not a single monthly or all-time record low temperature was set at any NOAA observing station during the event. Readings across Northeast Ohio were similar but not colder than the readings reached in January 2009. Some regions of the country did see the coldest air since 1996 or 1994 but this speaks more of the increase in time period between cold waves than the intensity of the cold wave that we experienced.  Historic cold is a good media story, but in truth the story does not hold up.

Now let’s look at the upcoming weather for the region. A warm front generated light snows overnight and will be moving northward allowing temperatures in the 40's and rain to spread across the area. The heaviest rain will fall tonight and early tomorrow morning. A cold front of Pacific origin will move through on Saturday which will bring temperatures down into the 30's Saturday afternoon. Sunday and Monday will be quiet with high temperatures remaining around 40 with a chance of rain on Monday.

Currently a storm system is organizing over the Central Plains producing a southwest flow over the area. This system will track well to our west keeping our region in the warm sector until the front passes. Temperatures will rise into the 40's with abundant cold cover throughout the day and rain moving in overnight.

 Saturday a front will move through early in the day spreading rain across the area. In the afternoon temperatures will  fall in the 30's and any precipitation may mix and change over to some light snow with no accumulation expected. 

Monday another storm system will be approaching the area with rain accompanying it. Temperatures on Tuesday will cool further with high temperatures falling from the 40's on Monday to around 30 on Tuesday.

The extended is showing the early week warmth will move out and be replaced with more cold air as the weekend approaches. At this time a return to much below temperatures are not expected but high temperatures will be below normal  by the weekend and will hold in the 20's.

Historic Cold??

The area escaped much of the predicted snow from the most recent storm system as the low pressure system slowed the front down and tracked directly through the Cleveland area instead of moving through Pennsylvania. The result was that the heavy snowfall, over 12 inches in places, fell well to our west through Indiana, Illinois,Michigan and Northwestern Ohio. The lake effect snow has not been impressive as the winds have been mostly out of the west and are now becoming southwest driving the snow into Western New York. That being said, the area is not missing out on the cold air. After reaching an official high of 39 degrees in Cleveland yesterday, the temperatures have now fallen to negative three (-3)  at 4pm and are continuing to fall. The temperature Tuesday morning will be around negative twelve (-12) which will be the coldest Cleveland has been since reaching negative thirteen (-13) back on January 16, 2009. The high on Tuesday will struggle to rise above zero (0) and if it fails to do so, that will be the first time that has happened since January 1994. It is yet to be determined if the temperatures associated with this cold wave are historic but they at least will be noteworthy.  Temperatures will moderate the rest of the week as the cold air moves off to the north and east. A weak system will move through the area on Thursday spreading light snows across the area.  Once that system moves out, temperatures will continue to moderate with highs reaching the low 40's by Saturday.

The current weather map shows the center of the low pressure system impacting the area has move off to the north and east allowing cold Arctic air to settled across the Eastern USA. Tuesday morning should be the coldest period in Northeast Ohio with temperatures between (-10) and (-15) degrees. 

By Wednesday the area will be under control of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic States. Moderation will commence as high temperatures rise into the 20's.

On Thursday overrunning precipitation,produced by a weak storm system, will spread light snow across the area.

 By Friday the last of the Arctic air will be gone from the Eastern USA.  Temperatures for locations east of the Mississippi River will continue to rise to above normal levels.

The extended forecast is still showing near to above normal temperatures for much of the Eastern USA in the 6-10 day range. Late next week there may be a cool down, but the details are uncertain at this time. 

Bitter Cold!

This has definitely been a snowy and cold start to the year and, it will not get much better in the next five (5) days. A long duration snow event is winding down across the area after producing 6 to 12 inches of snow. Today will be a cold day with day time temperatures not reaching 20 degrees. This weekend will see temperatures moderating into the lower 30's before the next Arctic front arrives Sunday. A wave of low pressure will develop along this front and will bring a general snowfall to much of the area. Once the front passes, temperatures will fall through the day Monday until temperatures early Tuesday approach negative ten (-10) degrees. This cold air combined with strong winds will produce dangerous wind chills. Looking ahead all is not gloom for the Eastern USA. A ridge will replace the trough currently over the region by the weekend allowing temperatures to quickly rise to and possibly exceed normal.

Currently a ridge of high pressure is moving across the area shutting off the lake effect snow and setting the stage for high temperatures to rebound into the lower 30's for the weekend. 

On Sunday the Arctic front will be moving through Ohio with a rapidly deepening low pressure moving northeast along it through the Ohio Valley. Currently much of Northeast Ohio looks to be in line for 3-6 inches of snow from the system with additionally amounts likely from lake effect.

 The system will moving through quickly overnight Sunday allowing bitterly cold air to rush into the Ohio Valley on gusty  northerly winds. After highs are reached on Sunday, temperatures may not stop falling until they are below zero Tuesday morning. At this time it appears temperatures Tuesday morning will be around negative ten (-10) with wind chill values approaching negative thirty-five (-35) degrees. These conditions will be dangerously cold and proper precautions to cover up and limit time outdoors should be made.

The arctic high pressure will move east of the area on Wednesday allowing a moderation of temperatures to begin.

By Thursday, the Arctic high has pushed off the Eastern Seaboard.  Please note the zonal airflow across Southern Canada. This will block Arctic air from flowing south into the Continental USA setting the stage for a rapid warm-up.

Looking ahead in the 6 to 14 day range, above normal temperatures are predicted for all areas east of the Rocky Mountains. This is will be a welcome break for individuals who are winter weary.