Widespread Snow

Today was a nice quiet, albeit cold, day in between storm systems. The weekend system behaved as predicted though the rainfall and snowfall amounts did over achieve.  Rainfall amounts were one half to three quarters of an inch and snowfall ranged from 2-4 inches. Today weak high pressure is providing party sunny conditions and high temperatures in the mid-20’s area wide. The next system to affect the area is beginning to organize over western Texas.  The system will track to the east through the lower Mississippi Valley before heading up the Appalachian Mountains and then transferring out to the East Coast. The system will spread overrunning precipitation in the form of snow from southwest to northeast starting late Tuesday afternoon. The snow will continue much of the day Wednesday and could be heavy at times, especially before noon. This will be a quickly moving storm systems but the track of the low pressure is very favorable for heavy snowfall in Northeast Ohio.  Once the system moves away, colder air will filter in behind the system and calm conditions should last until the weekend when the next system approaches the area from the south.

 Currently cold high pressure is present over the area. A weak low pressure moved quickly along the front and off of the East Coast spreading heavy snow from Philadelphia to New York City.

Snow from the system will begin falling late Tuesday afternoon, but steadiest and heaviest snow will occur overnight Tuesday through Wednesday morning. 

Snowfall amounts look to range between 6 and 10 inches with locally higher amounts.

After the system moves away, high pressure will control the weather until the weekend. High temperatures will fall to around 20 degrees on Thursday but will moderate into the middle to upper 20’s by the weekend.

Looking ahead the weather pattern will remain active through next week  Cold air from Canada will be maintained as more systems of pacific origin begin to affect the area.  A system appears to affect the area over the weekend though at this time the exact impacts are uncertain. Temperatures appear cold enough for snow but the track will determine the amounts.  Though a trough will be over the area, the broad nature of it should prevent a return to the true Arctic air the region experienced in January.

With Groundhog Day just occurring, this appears to be a good time to analyze and update the outlook for this present winter (Climatologically December –February).  So far, this present winter has trended colder than normal but the cold and snow has not been unprecedented.  Snowfall and temperatures for December were near normal.  January was solidly colder than normal with above normal snowfall. Oddly the coldest and heaviest snow occurred around Toledo.  This area was repeatedly in the sweet spot for snowfall and located where the coldest air settled. The outlook for February is for a cold start and increased storminess for the region.  Temperatures across the region are anticipated to moderate towards the end of the month, but currently there are no indications for that. What a fitting end to the current winter season.  People may be asking what happened to Climate Change and why were the earlier winter predictions incorrect?  The answer is lies with the stubborn high pressure positioned over the west coast of North America.

 This ridge found a home in November and has not moved much since. The ridge provided dry and warm conditions for the Western Continental USA (hence increased drought severity) and pumped warm moist air into Alaska. On its eastern flank, cold Arctic air was directed south across central Canada and into the Eastern USA.  This weather pattern occurred while most of the globe continued to see above average temperatures.  Overall this means we have seen a colder and snowier winter though as a whole the climate of the globe continues to warm.