Active Week Ahead

It has been an incredibly active and unfortunately deadly week for the nation. A strong storm system that moved from Texas to the Northeast generated a tornado outbreak on Tuesday and Wednesday of this past week. Currently fifty eight (58) tornados have been confirmed and they were responsible for seven(7) deaths. The number could rise as additional surveys are completed. On Tuesday the tornados struck from Texas east to Florida; on Wednesday the tornados struck North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. On the northwest side of the storm heavy snow(6-18") fell from Missouri to Northern Lower Michigan. Currently the weather is generally quiet across nation with the coldest conditions centered on the Great Lakes Region.  Conditions will become mild over the weekend before an active weather pattern takes hold for next week. Severe weather and snow will be on tap for numerous locations depending on the side of the storm system they fall on. 

Currently the local area is experiencing cold quiet conditions. One to four inches fell across Northern Ohio on Thursday as a brief shot of cold air moved in. Today conditions were quiet with high temperatures near thirty (30) degrees. On Saturday milder conditions will move east as a westerly air flow takes over. Locally high temperatures will rise well into the forties under partly cloudy skies.

On Sunday a strengthening storm system will move into the Upper Midwest. Southerly flow will increase over the area allowing high temperatures to rise well into the fifties(50's). Rain will spread across the area overnight as the storm system moves through the area.

The quick moving system will move east of the area during the day Monday. Rain showers may transition to snow showers briefly before ending. Accumulations will be minor if they occur at all. High temperatures will be in the lower forties(40's).

On Tuesday a strong storm system will organize over the Central Plains. Severe storms will be possible in the Mississippi River Valley from Missouri south to the Gulf of Mexico. Snow will fall to the north and west of the storm system. Local high temperatures will be around fifty(50) degrees. Rain will move into the area overnight.

On Tuesday the storm system will move northeast of the region. Colder air will move in and change the remaining rain showers to snow showers. High temperatures will be around forty (40) degrees.

On Thursday attention will turn to the next storm system that will organize over the central Plains. Its eventual path is uncertain at this time but it may move south of the local area through the Ohio River Valley. High temperatures will remain below normal for this time of the year.

Major Midweek Storm

After a beautiful quiet weekend featuring record breaking high temperatures, the local area is preparing for a major storm system that will affect the entire Eastern half of the country.  Temperatures near seventy (70) on Saturday have been replaced will more seasonable high temperatures in the lower forties (40's). A strong storm system is organizing over the lower Mississippi River Valley and will move towards the Eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday. After the storm system moves out a brief shot of cold air will move in before temperatures rebound over the weekend. The active pattern will continue early next week with a fast moving system affecting the Ohio River Valley Region.

Currently a strong storm system is organizing over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. It is generating heavy rain and severe storms in that region. Overnight the storm system will move into the Lower Ohio River Valley

The storm system is generating a tornado outbreak this evening. Severe storms in a strongly sheared environment is leading to a potentially dangerous situation from SE Louisiana through Mississippi into Alabama and Western Florida. Several strong long track tornadoes will be possible during the evening and overnight hours.

On Wednesday the storm system will move into the Ohio River Valley. Heavy rain will be likely in the warm sector with severe storms possible along the Atlantic Coast from Virginia to Georgia. On the northwest side of the storm heavy snow will develop from Eastern Illinois into Lower Michigan. Heavy rain will will target much of Northern Ohio during the day; one to two inches of rain will be possible. High temperatures will be in the forties (40's) to near fifty (50).

On Thursday the storm system will move into the the Eastern Great Lakes Region. Cold air will be ushered in behind the storm system with rain changing to snow for Northern Ohio.  Widespread snow showers may accumulate from one to three inches for most places. Temperatures will remain steady or will fall into the middle and lower thirties (30's). Conditions will clear out for Friday with high temperatures near thirty (30) degrees.

On Saturday a storm system passing to the north of the area will turn the air flow out of the south and west. This will allow local temperatures to rise well into the forties (40's) on Saturday and Sunday.

On Monday another storm system will race towards the area.  Precipitation early on Monday may start as rain but will change to snow showers.  The quick moving system may bring minor accumulations depending on its eventual track. 

Mild Weekend Before Unsettled Pattern

What a difference a week can make weather wise. Last week at this time the coldest air of the season was beginning to arrive that would allow the area to officially drop to one degree on Valentine's Day morning. Temperatures have generally moderated since then with a major winter storm affecting locations to the east Monday night into late Tuesday. Locally one to three inches of snow fell but Rochester, New York received eighteen inches!! Further to the south there was enough instability for nearly two dozen tornadoes to touch down from Louisiana to North Carolina on Presidents Day and the day after. Thankfully no major injuries or deaths were reported. This weekend the pattern is much different with mild air spread across the entire Eastern half of the nation. A quick moving Pacific storm system will affect the area this weekend before a ridge in the West and trough in the East gets reestablished next week. Until then the weather pattern will be very active with many details that will have a major impact on the weather to be determined.

Currently a weak storm system is moving across the Upper Midwest. This system has allowed deep southerly flow to move over the entire area leading to high temperatures in the middle fifties (50's). Overnight a weak cool front will move through the area but the air mass will not change much. Overnight temperatures will drop slightly in the forties (40's) with Saturday's high temperatures rising back into the fifties (50's).

On Sunday high temperatures will only rise into the forties (40's) after a cool front moves through Saturday night. This storm system may bring with it a few light showers with its passage. 

On Monday local high temperatures will drop into the thirties (30's) as more cool air is brought into the region by Canadian high pressure; expect mostly clear skies. It is at this time that uncertainty begins with the weather forecast. A storm system will form near the Gulf States and it will track eastward towards the Atlantic coast. On Tuesday this system will either push off the coast quickly or phase with energy in the North to form a major storm system.  Local weather conditions will remain quiet on Tuesday with high temperatures remaining in the thirties (30's)

On Wednesday things will get very interesting. Either a major storm system will form from the phasing of two system or another weak storm system will push off the coast. If a major storm system forms it will push north along the Atlantic coast and will have the potential to spread snow into Eastern Ohio. If the storm system is much weaker and pushes off the coast the local affects will be minor. Stay tuned for updates as the details of the storm system come into focus. High temperatures will depend on the eventual strength and path of the storm system.

On Friday the storm will depart and cold air out of Canada will flow back into the Eastern half of the nation. Depending on the amount of moisture remaining lake effect snow will be possible. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the lower thirties(30's). Looking ahead below normal temperatures will close out the month of February.

Coldest Temperatures of 2016

This past week was a snowy week for Northeast Ohio which allowed Cleveland to double its seasonal snowfall. Officially Cleveland remains more than twenty (20) inches below normal for snowfall; a deficient that is difficult but not impossible to make up by the end of the snow season. With the area blanketed in snow the coldest air of the season is arriving this weekend. Two surges of cold air arrived Friday evening and night sending temperatures plunging into the single digits. Thankfully the cold snap will not last long as temperatures next week moderate to and eventually above normal levels.

Currently the coldest air of the season has arrived for many sections of the Eastern U.S.A. Locally temperatures will hover around ten (10) degrees all day. Lake effect snow is being hindered by the extremely dry nature of the cold air.  Overnight the temperatures will fall to a few degrees on either side of zero (0) which will be the coldest temperatures seen locally since February 2015. Windchill values from today through Sunday morning will be ten to twenty (-10 to -20)  degrees below zero! Sunday will feature mostly sunny conditions early as temperatures moderate to near twenty (20) degrees. Light snow will spread into the area late Sunday night.

On Monday a storm system will approach the area and produce light snow mainly before noon.  Accumulations at most will be one or two inches. High temperatures will be in the lower thirties (30's). Another storm system will begin to organize over the Lower Mississippi River Valley producing showers and possible thunderstorms. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

On Tuesday the southern storm system will begin moving north along the Atlantic coast. At this time the path of the storm system will put the local area on the edge for minor accumulations. The path also will bring a period of snow to the major cities along the coast followed by heavy rain. Local temperatures will be in the lower thirties (30's).

After the storm system departs cold air will attempt to move back over the area behind a cold front that moves through on Wednesday.  With the weather pattern transitioning to a zonal pattern this cold air will at most be a glancing blow for the area. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the lower thirties(30's). On Thursday conditions will be quiet with high temperatures near thirty (30) degrees. 

On Friday a storm system of Pacific origins will be moving into the Upper Plains. This will allow a deep southerly flow to move over the local area leading to temperatures rising well into the forties (40's). Looking ahead to the following week it appears that above normal temperatures will dominate much of the nation. 

Groundhog Day 2016

January went out on a very mild note across Northeast Ohio and much of the Eastern half of the nation. Locally high temperatures reached well into the fifties (50's) on Saturday and touched sixty (60) on Sunday. Today a cool front moved through during the early morning hours and returned temperatures closer to normal.  A major storm system is organizing over the central plans and will produce a major winter storm over the Upper Midwest. Further south severe weather will hit the Mississippi Valley region before the entire system pushes to the northeast. Cooler air will arrive in the wake of the storm system but Arctic air will not flow out of  Canada into the USA this week.

Today's high temperatures occurred in the predawn hours before a cool front moved through the area. High temperatures were in the upper fifties (50's) before the front moved through. During the daylight hours temperatures remained steady in the lower forties (40's). A storm system is moving east from the Four Corners region and snow is breaking out from Colorado into Nebraska and Kansas.

Tomorrow the storm system will be moving into the central Plains and the snow will become heavy from Nebraska to Wisconsin. In addition winds will increase and create blizzard conditions for many locations. Further south thunderstorms with severe weather will affect the Mississippi Valley region. Storms with severe winds and a few tornadoes will affect areas from Tennessee south into Louisiana. For Northeast Ohio a warm front will move north across the area and high temperatures will rise into the fifties (50's) by the evening. Rain chances will not increase until nighttime. 

On Wednesday the storm system will track into the central Great Lakes. Rain and storms will move through the Ohio Valley early in the day with a cold front. To the northwest of the storm system heavy snow will fall over northern Wisconsin and Michigan.  Northeast Ohio will experience mild temperatures possibly reaching sixty (60) degrees during the morning before the cold front moves through. Temperatures will fall during the afternoon and evening behind the front.  Colder air Wednesday night into Thursday will support snow showers downwind of Lake Erie. Accumulations will be minor if they occur. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the lower thirties (30's).

Conditions will remain largely quiet and an uneventful after the major storm system leaves the region.  High temperatures will rise back into the forties for the remainder of the week and weekend; Precipitation chances will remain low. The next storm system will not approach the area until the beginning of next week