What a difference a week can make weather wise. Last week at this time the coldest air of the season was beginning to arrive that would allow the area to officially drop to one degree on Valentine's Day morning. Temperatures have generally moderated since then with a major winter storm affecting locations to the east Monday night into late Tuesday. Locally one to three inches of snow fell but Rochester, New York received eighteen inches!! Further to the south there was enough instability for nearly two dozen tornadoes to touch down from Louisiana to North Carolina on Presidents Day and the day after. Thankfully no major injuries or deaths were reported. This weekend the pattern is much different with mild air spread across the entire Eastern half of the nation. A quick moving Pacific storm system will affect the area this weekend before a ridge in the West and trough in the East gets reestablished next week. Until then the weather pattern will be very active with many details that will have a major impact on the weather to be determined.
Currently a weak storm system is moving across the Upper Midwest. This system has allowed deep southerly flow to move over the entire area leading to high temperatures in the middle fifties (50's). Overnight a weak cool front will move through the area but the air mass will not change much. Overnight temperatures will drop slightly in the forties (40's) with Saturday's high temperatures rising back into the fifties (50's).
On Sunday high temperatures will only rise into the forties (40's) after a cool front moves through Saturday night. This storm system may bring with it a few light showers with its passage.
On Monday local high temperatures will drop into the thirties (30's) as more cool air is brought into the region by Canadian high pressure; expect mostly clear skies. It is at this time that uncertainty begins with the weather forecast. A storm system will form near the Gulf States and it will track eastward towards the Atlantic coast. On Tuesday this system will either push off the coast quickly or phase with energy in the North to form a major storm system. Local weather conditions will remain quiet on Tuesday with high temperatures remaining in the thirties (30's)
On Wednesday things will get very interesting. Either a major storm system will form from the phasing of two system or another weak storm system will push off the coast. If a major storm system forms it will push north along the Atlantic coast and will have the potential to spread snow into Eastern Ohio. If the storm system is much weaker and pushes off the coast the local affects will be minor. Stay tuned for updates as the details of the storm system come into focus. High temperatures will depend on the eventual strength and path of the storm system.
On Friday the storm will depart and cold air out of Canada will flow back into the Eastern half of the nation. Depending on the amount of moisture remaining lake effect snow will be possible. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the lower thirties(30's). Looking ahead below normal temperatures will close out the month of February.
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