Changeable Weather Ahead

Today marks the last day of weather "calm" for the region. High temperatures since Friday have been rather mild especially considering this time last week sub-zero readings were widespread. The first in a series of clipper system will affect the region this evening into tonight bringing light rain that will change over to light snow by the morning. High temperatures tomorrow will hold around the freezing mark which is near normal for this time of the year. Another system will organize over southern Canada on Thursday and move through the region on Friday. This system will have more strength and cold air than the first so it will drop temperatures to below normal levels.

Currently a weak system is over the Western Great Lakes and it will move quickly through the area overnight bringing a return to seasonable temperatures and light rain and then snow. No significant accumulations or lake effect are expected.

On Thursday a stronger system will be organizing over Southern Canada. This system will move south and east bringing more snow showers and colder air with it on Friday.

In the extended yet another pattern change is on the horizon. An upper level ridge is expected to rebuild over the Northeastern Pacific which will lead to a trough developing over the Eastern USA. This will return the area to well below normal temperatures and increased storminess, depending on the track of low pressure systems moving through the trough. As the pattern maintains and strengthens, the air moving south out of Canada will continue to get colder with each passing Arctic front.

January Thaw

A January thaw is currently underway. Before we move forward, let’s take a minute to look at the Arctic cold that was experienced this week. Though the air was brutally cold, for most it was not historically cold. Broadly, not a single monthly or all-time record low temperature was set at any NOAA observing station during the event. Readings across Northeast Ohio were similar but not colder than the readings reached in January 2009. Some regions of the country did see the coldest air since 1996 or 1994 but this speaks more of the increase in time period between cold waves than the intensity of the cold wave that we experienced.  Historic cold is a good media story, but in truth the story does not hold up.

Now let’s look at the upcoming weather for the region. A warm front generated light snows overnight and will be moving northward allowing temperatures in the 40's and rain to spread across the area. The heaviest rain will fall tonight and early tomorrow morning. A cold front of Pacific origin will move through on Saturday which will bring temperatures down into the 30's Saturday afternoon. Sunday and Monday will be quiet with high temperatures remaining around 40 with a chance of rain on Monday.

Currently a storm system is organizing over the Central Plains producing a southwest flow over the area. This system will track well to our west keeping our region in the warm sector until the front passes. Temperatures will rise into the 40's with abundant cold cover throughout the day and rain moving in overnight.

 Saturday a front will move through early in the day spreading rain across the area. In the afternoon temperatures will  fall in the 30's and any precipitation may mix and change over to some light snow with no accumulation expected. 

Monday another storm system will be approaching the area with rain accompanying it. Temperatures on Tuesday will cool further with high temperatures falling from the 40's on Monday to around 30 on Tuesday.

The extended is showing the early week warmth will move out and be replaced with more cold air as the weekend approaches. At this time a return to much below temperatures are not expected but high temperatures will be below normal  by the weekend and will hold in the 20's.